Is the concept of Risk the opposite of the concept of Opportunity?
Risk can be defined as the variability in possible outcomes, usually in reference to the possibility of negative results. Basically, it is Black hat Thinking.
Is it allowed to opportunity as a Yellow Hat Thinking counterpart of Risk?
Risk is also defined as the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss (an undesirable outcome). The notion implies that a choice having an influence on the outcome exists (or existed). Potential losses themselves may also be called "risks". Almost any human endeavour carries some risk, but some are much more risky than others.
Could we mirror this definition?
Is it justifiable to define an opportunity as the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a gain (a desirable outcome). The notion implies that a choice having an influence on the outcome exists (or existed). Potential gains may also be called "opportunities". Almost any human endeavor carries some opportunity, but some are opportuneous than others.
This definition answers in my opinion much better the question about the nature of an opportunity. However, the Free Dictionary defines an opportunity as
op·por·tu·ni·ty
(
p
r-t
n
-t
, -ty-)
These nouns refer to a favorable or advantageous circumstance or combination of circumstances. Opportunity is an auspicious state of affairs or a suitable time: "If you prepare yourself . . . you will be able to grasp opportunity for broader experience when it appears" (Eleanor Roosevelt).
Occasion suggests the proper time for action: an auspicious occasion; an occasion for celebration.
An opening is an opportunity affording a good possibility of success: waited patiently for her opening, then exposed the report's inconsistency.
Chance often implies an opportunity that arises through luck or accident: a chance for us to chat; no chance of losing.
A break is an often sudden piece of luck, especially good luck: got his first big break in Hollywood.
It strikes me that in f.i. the Wikipedia an section exist about Risk, but not about Opportunity.
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Asa Jomard on -
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Permalink Reply by Phil Bachmann on -
Instinctively I thought that Yellow Hat would include possible benefits, not just definite ones. Surprisingly, I found that neither of the two de Bono books I consulted referred to opportunities under the Yellow Hat (or Green hat).
I wonder whether this is done to discourage the lazy use of the Yellow Hat?
eg. two sisters discuss whether to eat at home or go and get take away food. One puts on her yellow hat and suggests that maybe if they go to the take away place they will bump into two rich brothers who will want to marry them and pamper them and they will never have to work again.
... which kinda distracts from the job of listing the real benefits of buying take away food.
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Permalink Reply by Gijs van Beeck Calkoen on -
However, in long term it might be a much better and structural solution! n my opinion it is green hat thinking, because there is no reason given. It is a pure hypothesis. It could happen, but logically it is not likely. After all, rich brothers will not hang out in the local take away place.
But if the sisters reasoned that the take away place is frequently visited by Wall Street Boys, then it is in my opinion Yellow Hat Thinking. It is an argued possible benefit.
A possible danger ( a risk) is Black Hat thinking. The danger and why it is a danger is pointed out.
In my opinion, the same would apply for a potential benefit (an opportunity)
De Bono has written a book, dedicated to Opportunities. Unfortunately, I have it not at hand.
On this site I found the following:
de Bono defines an opportunity as "a course of action that is possible & obviously worth pursuing." He makes some very interesting observations in this book
"The reasons that many opportunities pass us by is a perceptual one - we do not recognise an opportunity for what it is. An opportunity exists only when we see it."
"Everyone is surrounded by opportunities. But they only exist once they have been seen. And they will only be seen if they are looked for.
"That's why I have always maintained that perceptual sensitivity to the world at large is a very important skill for all of us in today's rapidly-changing, technology-savvy world.
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Permalink Reply by Asa Jomard on
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What happens if the sisters reason that the place is visited by boys they are going to marry?
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Permalink Reply by Phil Bachmann on
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I think Gijs' point was that this needs to be logically based, not just wishful thinking!
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Permalink Reply by Asa Jomard on
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Yes, I saw that Gijs wanted it to be logical. And then I think you t need to explore what happens if it is not logical. You can call it wishful thinking or illogical thinking. And who decides whether it is logical or not;-)
http://www.pcworld.com/article/184426/the_webs_most_illogical_argum...
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Permalink Reply by Phil Bachmann on
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Hi Gijs,
I agree that opportunity scan is very important.
My red hat is that putting opportunities exclusively under yellow hat is too tidy.
Sister 1: Let's Yellow Hat the idea of getting take away tonight.
Sister 2: We might meet rich fellows at the take away while we're waiting for our meal.
Sister 1: Well that's more Green than Yellow, isn't it?
Sister 2: Actually I had my Red hat on. OK, fair point: Let's separate the talk of men and food. Yellow Hat take away we might meet someone to say hello to, and old aquantaince for example.
Sister 1: Yes, that's logical positive; it's realistic.
... insert more yellow hat statements from the two sisters.
Sister 2: Turning to the Green Hat I say let's find ways of making food at home more fun.
...
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Permalink Reply by Gijs van Beeck Calkoen on
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I agree, Risk is not the opposite of Opportunity
However, it seems to me that the concept of Opportunity becomes clearer
Is it better to say that Risk and Opportunity are
- satellites
- a pair
- complementary
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Permalink Reply by Kim Jones on -
It's a question of where you are standing and perceiving the situation from. These definitions are not fixed in stone, even if the dictionary suggests they are.
Personally, I find that that it is often convenient to see PROBLEM as the opposite of opportunity.
"We have a problem here. Can anyone find the solution?"
"There is no problem here. But there is the opportunity to make some changes that might reap benefits. It's only a problem if we do nothing."
Perhaps problem and opportunity can be considered synonyms, then. Actually I would be hard put to find a polarity with either of these two words.
Let's try for COMPLACENCY as the opposite of opportunity. If you are complacent, you tend to do nothing, even if opportunity presents itself. How's that Gijs?
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Permalink Reply by Marcel van der Wal on
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Hey everybody,
I'm currently doing my master thesis on opportunity management in projects. My professor adviced me to look at some of the work from mr. de Bono on creative thinking and finding opportunities. Because mr. de Bono has written a lot of books about the topic, I was wondering which would be the most interesting for me to start with? I know he wrote a book especially on opportunities, but maybe some other books are better for stimulating creative thinkgin. I would be very gratefull for your help.
On the discussion, I do not think that risks are exactly the opposite of opportunities. For example, risks have a probability of occurence if you do not act upon them. Opportunities always need to be acted upon (pursued) by a person or organisation before they have an impact.
My definition of Project Opportunities combines the literature from entrepreneurship and project management.
"An uncertain situation that can be exploited by the project team in order to create a positive effect on one or more project objectives" My supervisor adviced me to add something about 'going beyond the original objectives'.
I'm interested in hearing your comments!
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Permalink Reply by Gijs van Beeck Calkoen on
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The book you mentioned is Opportunities - A handbook of Business Opportunity Search. It is from 1992, but still worth reading. For your purposes I would recommend it before any other book of de Bono.
Maybe it is interesting to read his study about successful entrepreneurs. I think de Bono derived from these interviews his insight " to take a thinking pause". That is interrupting automatic thought, in order to notice things nobody else have noticed. And make out of it.a successful business. Tactics
I would start with these two books.
The best general overview of de Bono's work is in my opinion Serious Creativity: using the power of Lateral Thinking. It is about thinking in general, but I think less suitable for your job.
Would you announce when you thesis is finished, and how I can obtain it?
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