N.B.: I'll use the Hats Notation suggested by EdB here: http://www.edwdebono.com/debono/msg01p.htm
- Less than 60 days ago a few people were diagnosed with a novel type of influenza virus.
- After that, more than 40 thousand people have been diagnosed in more than 70 countries.
- About a week ago the World Health Organisation declared the situation "a pandemic". http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html http://www.who.int/entity/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_pan...
- Pandemics have happened in the past. Each has been different.
- Each pandemic is felt locally as a series of epidemics, each one called a "wave" cos the number of cases per week goes up for some weeks, then goes down again.
- More often than not, the second wave means more deaths than the other waves. See picture at http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/NEJMp0903906
- Severity is not just lethality. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/assess/disease_swineflu_ass...
- The European Center for Disease Control suggest the most likely scenario includes a second wave in Autumn 2009. http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/Health_topics/pandemic_influenza/Likel...
- The world has changed since 1918, 1957 and 1968 in many different ways: more people, more transport, more information, more science, more chronic disease and older people, etc. http://gapminder.org
- The WHO says the effects of pandemics are Disease, Death and Disruption. Disease rates (percentage of population who fall ill) have varied in different pandemics (20-45%) and age groups (the young's average is 40%, not 30%). Deaths have happened in the old and frail, and sometimes in the young and healthy.
- Today there are more specialists than ever in history.
- It's been said that complex systems may not be particularly resilient if enough specialists "fail" (ill, dead or not happy to go to work).
- I feel the most important aim here is saving lives, mostly those of the young (precious and disruptive).
- My hunch is the Autumn wave will be "strong" even if it's not more deadly. I'm not sure this 2009 pandemic will behave like a 1918, and I'm not sure it won't, either.
- I feel there are huge oportunities in fresh thinking.
- I'm not certain people here will take this as a serious challenge. I feel it is.
- We may feel the need for better information. At that point, it may be late to do certain things, and the right time to do others.
- It looks to me one of the things the world is in need of is this: ideas so that we'll be able to keep essential activities going on while reducing transmission
. That means hG, a lateral thinking challenge for ideas big and small. Ideas could be shared freely, perhaps public domain or other open license, so that there's the possibility of adapting them to different locations.
- If people here need hW, I'm ready to give links as and when I can.
- So, hG anyone? More hW needed? hH to provide some specific focus? I'm doing other things these days, so feel free to just jump in, help each other, and all those things we humans can do. :-)